With round 15 in the books, we thought it was time to revisit the QAFL run home, and see if we can predict what the finals will look like.
This is what the ladder looks like after 15 rounds.
And this is what each team faces in the run home, and what they need to do to make the five.
Palm Beach Currumbin, 2-1
vs. Broadbeach (win)
@ Wilston Grange (win)
@ Labrador (lose)
Well are truly in the box seat for the minor premiership now, and can do it before round 18. If they win the next two games, as expected, they are uncatchable.
That means they should have the luxury to mix things up in the final round. They can choose to show their hand to Labrador, and go for the win, but also rest a few and keep their powder dry.
Labrador, 3-0
Sandgate (win)
@ Broadbeach (win)
vs. Palm Beach Currumbin (win)
Last weekend’s win was massive in the overall scheme. From here, it would be a surprise if they didn’t bank a double chance come the end of round 18.
They should win the next two, which could set us up for a top spot clash against Palm Beach if the Lions drop one in the next fortnight.
Broadbeach is a danger game though. It was this time last year the Cats rolled them. You’ve always got to be careful of a team who can empty the tank in the remaining three weeks.
Western Magpies, 3-0
vs. UQ (win)
@ Morningside (win)
vs. Surfers Paradise (win)
On form, I can’t see them losing any of these games. Their form line is stronger than UQ and Morningside’s so should win those, and then they host Surfers at home. The last two games will tell us a lot about the premiership credentials of Magpies. If they win those two, look out.
Mt Gravatt, 2-1
vs. Morningside (win)
@ Surfers Paradise (lose)
vs. Wilston Grange (win)
The loss last week doesn’t change too much. This week is the biggest game of the year though, no two ways about that, and I’m sticking to my guns with my prediction.
They had five of their 22 missing on the weekend, and those blokes become paramount to when their season finishes up.
If they get over the line on Saturday, they need to win one of the remaining two, which should come in round 18 against Grange.
Surfers Paradise, 2-1
vs. Wilston Grange (win)
vs. Mt Gravatt (win)
@ Western Magpies (lose)
It’s going to be a tough final two weeks for Surfers Paradise now. They need to at least beat one of Mt Gravatt or the Western Magpies, which is no easy task. Their loss on the weekend dropped them out of the five on points, so have to win at least two.
Their best chance will be against Mt Gravatt. Can’t see them beating the Magpies in round 18. That would mean it comes down to percentage with Morningside for a spot in an elimination final. They currently have a four per cent advantage.
Morningside 1-2
@ Mt Gravatt (lose)
vs. Western Magpies (lose)
@ Sandgate (win)
The nine percentage points they gained on the weekend could be critical come three weeks time. What they still need to do though is win this week. They do that; finals are pretty much a lock. They don’t, they are in a fight with Surfers Paradise for fifth spot, looking like it could come down to percentage only.
This weekend should be titled an elimination final, because that’s how important it is.
So that would mean the ladder would look like this.
- Palm Beach Currumbin 56
- Labrador 52
- Western Magpies 52
- Mt Gravatt 46
- Surfers Paradise 44
- Morningside 44
We have a big three weeks coming up!
By Andrew Wiles
Follow @andrewjwiles
